Retired insurer John Payne, pictured with his wife, Christine, says he will vote tactically to remove ‘the worst government in my lifetime’. Photograph: Andy Hall/The Observer Kelly, Richard (February 2008), "Conservatism under Cameron: The new 'third way' ", Politics Review

Middle England, with all the social rituals, institutions and traditions that hold it together, has lasted for a long time. And Chris Horrie and David Matthews, two left-leaning journalists - Chris is from Manchester and David's parents are from Guyana - are fascinated by it. But, having acquired it in a fit of absence of mind, as it were, will the Conservatives let this winning formula slip through their fingers? There is a real risk. They must not put their faith in Labour-lite policies. That failed in 2017. And they must not use 2017-style Labour language either like “burning injustices”. Instead they must use conservative language to describe Conservative policies. Dorey, Peter; Garnett, Mark (2015). " 'The weaker-willed, the craven-hearted': the decline of One Nation Conservatism". Global Discourse. 5 (1): 69–91. doi: 10.1080/23269995.2014.914823.

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Given that degree-level education now seems to tilt people away from the Tories, the fact that 50% of young people in England now go to university is a big driver of that shift. It is also worth noting deep changes in the culture and politics of many places that once gave the Tories their most loyal support: as highlighted by the party’s declining fortunes in everywhere from suburban Greater Manchester to the south-east commuter belt, an increasingly large chunk of the English middle class is now socially liberal, eco-minded and repulsed by the Tories’ increasingly reactionary instincts.

Elsewhere in the Tory party, however, there arefigures who argue that while the One Nation caucus cantry to become moreorganised, it also needs to establish a clearer sense of what it actually stands for other than being further to the left than other Conservative MPs on social issues, and they say there are differences in opinionamong its members when it comes to economic policy. The former Cabinet Office minister Damian Green, who chairs the group, said he was keen to move the focus of the group away from Brexit and added that there was a need for an “intellectual regeneration” of the party. The problem emerging in affluent, liberal Tory seats comes with a parallel debate over tactics raging among Conservative MPs on the One Nation wing. Some want to take a “more muscular” stance with the right of the party. Others want to maintain a softer approach, cajoling Sunak and his team behind the scenes. They point out that while the blue wall may be wobbling, their wing of the party is better represented in the cabinet now than it has been for years.Given what Gauke has experienced at constituency level, would he stand again as an MP? “Oh yes, absolutely,” he replies. Which is to say that between them globalism — which is only a bigger re-run of the crisis of the 1840s — Brexit and Corbyn’s leftish internationalism have delivered the Tories (with almost no effort on their part, it should be said) the One Nation electoral coalition that Disraeli devoted his whole life to constructing.

An issue the caucus is less publicly forthright about, but is equally pertinent as the Conservatives continue to flail behind Labour in the polls, is what sort of direction the party takes if it loses the next general election. Who will replace Sunak as leader with the party in opposition is an urgent question for One Nationers whosee it as their job to resist any efforts to pull the party further to the right in the event of defeat. A former minister says it would be “almost impossible” for them to act in a way that “facilitated” a Jeremy Corbyn-led government. “I would be very unlikely to vote against my own government in a no-confidence motion,” they say. “There are some highly principled people who would vote against the Government on a no-confidence motion, but it would be a massive thing for somebody to do and it would be the end of their political career in this party. There are some people who would be prepared to pay that price, and there are others for whom that is not a sacrifice they could make.” Another policy he said was “non-negotiable” for Conservatives like him was continuing the commitment to 0.7% of GDP on aid spending. Griffiths, Simon (19 July 2012). "Cameron's "Progressive Conservatism" is largely cosmetic and without substance". LSE Blogs . Retrieved 20 March 2015. One Nation circles regard Cameron's 2013 legalisation of same-sex marriage in the face of fierce resistance from much ofthe partyas one the Conservatives' greatest achievements, and believe they must continue to promote socially progressive values if they are to appeal to younger voters. Currently the party is losing support among every age group other than the over-65s.Those charming electric maps that illuminated the route from Sèvres-Lecourbe to the rue Saint-Maur have gone the way of the petit bleu and the vespasienne, and in any case no such figure of speech would do for the story of Thatcher’s party since her departure, unless it were some kinetic artifact flashing on and off at random. Like Lord Salisbury, Stanley Baldwin, and Winston Churchill before her, Thatcher led the Conservative Party for roughly fifteen years. In the thirty-two years since her fall, there have been nine Conservative leaders, including five prime ministers in the past seven years. If 1936 was the year of three kings (George V, Edward VIII, and George VI), 2022 will be remembered as the year of two monarchs and three prime ministers, not to mention four chancellors of the exchequer, five education secretaries, and more than thirty resignations from the government. In other words, there are two aspects to One Nation Toryism: first, the belief in the nation and its essential unity; second, the recognition of the connection between the party and the people and the choice of policies, rhetoric and an electoral strategy to maintain it. The former is a constant; the latter varies with time and circumstances. You would have the executive up against parliament, and I think a clear majority of parliament. There would be a large number of Conservative MPs who would consider that behaviour to be beyond the pale. I don’t for a moment believe that Boris Johnson would prorogue parliament. But I do think he ought to make that clear. He should provide some clarity on that." No wonder that Brexit has been followed by “Bregret” or buyers’ remorse: an average of recent polls showed that 58 percent of voters not only regret Brexit but favor rejoining the EU, which is what 79 percent of eighteen-to-twenty-four-year-olds want. And yet you wouldn’t know that from our political leaders. Both the Tories and Labour are in a curious form of denial. Sunak feels obliged to claim, against all evidence, that Brexit was a great success, but Starmer, a former Remainer, is no better in his insistence not only that Brexit is a done deal but by silent implication that its malign consequences must not be discussed in public.