If an area has been searched dozens of times, chances are the search was sufficient. Especially if the body wasn’t even found by dedicated searchers, but by random hikers or passersby after the search was over. This includes a number of cases of divers not finding the body, but random people on the shore finding it afterwards. Again without anyone seeing the body get in. The main analytical problem with using this as a profile point is that while it is a good place to start, the fact that the person wasn’t found is a better indicator of which variables prevent people from being found, more than it is an indicator of why or how they got lost in the first place. I will discuss this in more detail when I get to related profile points like the role of bad weather. Unusually high percentage of subjects being male, very young, college-age, or old, with some kind of apparent or hidden injury or disability, or with exceptionally high or low intelligence (including specifically academically accomplished people like physicists or physicians, very physically fit people like runners, athletes, or soldiers, or people connected to religion or Germany)

Following his work on Bigfoot, Paulides' next project was Missing 411, a series of self-published books and two documentary films, documenting unsolved cases of people who have gone missing in national parks and elsewhere.

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If some sort of targeted infrasound, microwave, or EM-based device is used, I bet you can make someone feel unwell at a distance, or make them hallucinate, or start behaving irrationally. The science is almost there. Missing 411 – Eastern United States: Unexplained Disappearances of North Americans That Have Never Been Solved (2012) ISBN 978-1-4680-1262-0 A tip from a national park ranger led to this 4+ years and a 9000 hour investigative effort into understanding the stories behind people who have vanished. The book chronicles children, adults and the elderly who disappeared, sometimes in the presence of friends and relatives. As Search and Rescue personnel exhaust leads and places to search, relatives start to believe kidnappings and abductions have occurred. The belief by the relatives is not an isolated occurrence; it replicates itself time after time, case after case across North America.

I do agree with Dave that it is safe to assume that places typically get named for a reason, especially if the name sounds ominous, like Devil’s, Demon’s, or Hell’s something or other. I guess I should look into places in the Czech Republic with our version of this, involving the word “Čert” in the name. On the other hand, there are some data points that indicate that there’s something unusual going on during the disappearances with the dogs. There is at least one case in which the dog was proven to have been almost certainly fed (venison), which might indicate some perpetrator may have been more respectful of the life of the dog than that of the human target, as well as there are cases of dogs likely not having spent time in the area where they got lost, like the one dehydrated dog found in a swampland, or a number of cases of dogs being found in a surprisingly good condition. Paulides, David (2011). Missing 411 Western United States and Canada. North Charleston, South Carolina: CreateSpace. pp.ix–x. ISBN 978-1466216297. In the Dennis Martin case, the Martin family went on a hike into a forest, and in the forest, they met another Martin family. Dennis disappeared while Martin kids were playing with the other Martin kids. Meanwhile, after Dennis went missing, the Key family, looking for bears some distance away, saw a dark man-type figure carrying something on its shoulder, a key piece of the puzzle. Like, you just won’t believe how vastly, hugely, mind-bogglingly unlikely it is, but that’s all that is — unlikely, not impossible. There is mounting evidence that states of mind affect probability of external events, making it fluctuate. If that could be scaled up or turned into a realiable technology, then who knows, maybe it could be possible to cause coincidences, or they could be a side effect of some type of probability-based technology being used. Like to teleport. It’s not crazy talk, it’s a genius speculation of one of the sci-fi greats.There are a few ways you can listen to the Missing 411 podcast. The easiest way is to head over to Audible.com, where you can sign up for a free trial and listen to the first episode. In all likelihood, the stories of feral people living in national parks are nothing more than urban legends. This is a fairly strong profile point, given that there is no good explanation, conventional or otherwise, for why or how any of this should happen at all. People don’t have good reasons to lie down on their faces and Paulides is correct to point out that corpses in water can offer a lot of reliable information about the deceased person. Specifically, when, where, or how they died. Maybe there are more younger and older people visiting the parks in general, maybe it’s more of a white or specifically German cultural thing in general, maybe people with disabilities, geniuses, or athletes should be over-represented. Maybe more younger and older people get missing more often in general, or specifically, maybe kids always get missing more often when they’re watched by relatives other than their parents. There are so many comparisons that need to be made, and for that you need numbers. And sure, tests have to be named something and there is a limited number of letters in the alphabet. Granted, Elisa Lam is a rare name, so it’s a case of a rare name of a test that is the same as a human name, which was the same as a rare name of a person who died unusually, while the test was being used at the time and place where they died. That’s roughly a bit odd to the fourth power. The unusual death following a plot of a movie, an unusual plot, moves this coincidence to about a bit odd to the sixth power. How odd is enough?

Yes, you are supposed to be thinking of Dirk Gently. The concept of a holistic detective may be a fiction invented by Douglas Adams, but the interesting aspect of his science fiction ideas is that while crazy-sounding and hilarious, they are logically consistent and potentially realistic. Like his idea of a probability-based engine — many macroscopic physical “laws” are only aggregates of chaotic movements and interactions going on at the subatomic level. Objects can spontaneously teleport, it’s just very, very, very unlikely. Specifically, either cryptids known as dogmen, or some version of skinwalkers who can shapeshift into canine forms. There are cases where a wolf man-type being was described as the one who kidnapped the target, they could be easily able to control dogs and likely to respect them more than humans, and if the shapeshifting into dogs is on the table, they could get around any human settlements, including urban areas, undetected. Taylor, Dennis (January 3, 2015). "Skeptics take on God, psychics, even science". Monterey Herald. Archived from the original on September 4, 2018 . Retrieved January 9, 2017. The books publicized the fact that the National Park Service does not keep a comprehensive list of people who go missing in parks and although there’s a database for criminal and incident reports, it’s underutilized and doesn’t interface with other criminal databases. It’s important to understand that when you’re working against an intelligent adversary, they will try to use your statistical reasoning against you, not doing anything too frequently, so that you brush it all off as a mere coincidence, normal chance. For that reason, what you need to focus on are any exceptional, unique, or odd attributes that ideally didn’t have to show up at all, or that would make someone a logical target for a predator, even if you don’t fully understand what that predator is getting out of it.

If I think about how likely it is that this profile point signifies something unusual, the inside-out clothing is very hard to explain away, but the brightly colored clothing may have a mundane explanation. Anything that makes you more visible from a longer distance by default makes you an easier target for any kind of predator, animal, human, or otherwise. So, I would expect more people to get lost while wearing colorful clothing rather than natural shades or camo. However, after they get lost, I would expect more people with colorful clothing to be found, as it cuts both ways. Paulides, David. "Blog #188". NAbigfootsearch.com. Archived from the original on February 9, 2017 . Retrieved February 8, 2017. However, that leaves a number of seemingly unnecessary attributes without any apparent logic behind why they should make someone a target or more likely to get lost mysteriously. These are mainly the German connection, the religion connection, and the military connection, or a combination of two or all three. This invokes a motivation or mentality that either has something to do with genetics or culture, or a specific grudge. These spinoffs often dilute the information from the original books with unverified claims and contradictory theories.

As for any data points or theories that may shed some light on why the clothing tends to be missing, the only explanations provided by the survivors of something like a Missing 411 incident are either that they removed it themselves (without understanding why and later regretting it), or the story of one little girl that a dog/wolf man “ate” some articles of her clothing. Dave also mentions legends from Hawaii and Indonesia which explain that you should not wear bright clothing if you don’t want to offend some kind of spirits, or that some spirits demand that you lie naked face down in their presence, which is how Missing 411 people often are found. While our current medical science is far from perfect, the real number of truly unknown causes of death appears to be quite low, somewhere in the range of 1.34 per 100,000 (in the U.K.) and 15 per 100,000 (in the U.S.). The U.K. study also suggests that the truly undeterminable deaths (called the “sudden adult death syndrome” there) can be incorrectly misdiagnosed as a different cause of death as much as two thirds of the time. The ideal places to build bases would be at the bottom of the ocean or under beautiful sacred mountains, given that the former is still much less explored than the surface of the Moon and Mars, and that the latter is about the last place where humans would start a large-scale, invasive digging operation. If you could use portals to get in and out of them, that would help a lot, but all the technology you need is a camouflaged door. Subjects found deceased having no identifiable cause of death, or an unexplained fever if found alive

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The exotic options would all be variations on the person entering some sort of portal or spacetime warp or legitimately teleporting. While phenomena of this type are not strictly speaking ruled out by theoretical physicists, they would at the very least expect them to be substantially more rare, if they were to occur strictly naturally. In any event, I believe that Dave is correctly focusing on the cases where the most inexplicable travel speeds or distances took place. The only conventional explanation for reliable amnesia is when it is induced by some sort of chemical. Making the target unconscious or suggestible immediately and wiping their memory after the fact would be desirable tactics for any type of predator, if they can pull it off. Besides chemicals, one could make an argument for an uncommon EM, other type of radiation, or infrasound-based technologies, but nothing should be 100% reliable. One series tries to prove the existence of bigfoot while the other is the Missing 411 books. About the Books