This is the average number of seconds between one wave and the next, 1-2 miles out to sea. A long wave Although there is a long term increase in the number of extreme rainfall events in the UK as we go through the century, as shown by the white line in the graph above, in any individual realisation (or ensemble member, as shown by the red line) the number of events per year remains erratic much like the observational record. As our climate warms, it is notable quite how variable the number of events becomes year to year. As the atmosphere warms it can hold more moisture, at a rate of 7% more moisture for every degree of warming. On a simple level, this explains why in many regions of the world projections show an increase in precipitation as a consequence of human induced climate change. Professor Kendon explains: “The observed rainfall record in the UK is fairly erratic with a large amount of variability, these latest projections show that this is likely to continue through the century. What we can see from the higher resolution output is an even more erratic frequency of extreme events each year, so this could mean we see clusters of record breaking intense rainfall events, followed by a period when no records are broken. Despite the underlying trend, these pauses in the intensification of local rainfall extremes can last a surprisingly long time – even multiple decades.

Flooding also has extensive and significant impacts on health including direct effects like skin and gut infections from exposure to contaminated flood water. In terms of flooding, the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment in 2021 identified flooding as one of the most important climate change adaptation challenges facing the UK. In all future climate change scenarios, direct and indirect flood risks are projected to rise over the course of the 21st century. Our guidance also includes advice that the public can act on to stay safe and as always, our most important call to action during adverse weather is to look out for people who might struggle to cope, particularly older people, young children and people with long term health conditions. Looking forward

The arrow shows the direction the wind is blowing. The letters show the direction the wind is blowing An example of an intense rainfall event with 20mm/hr is London in July 2021, when 40mm of rain fell over three hours at Kew Gardens, flooding the underground and other infrastructure. This number shows the air temperature for the time period. You can see the temperature in Celsius or Our study highlights the complexity of how natural climate variability and human-induced climate change will come together in the extreme rainfall events we experience over the UK – it is far from a simple picture of more extreme events decade by decade as a steadily increasing trend.”

Chance of precipitation represents how likely it is that rain (or other types of precipitation, such asThis means that even though average temperatures are expected to increase, cold will remain a significant public health problem in the years to come. Protecting communities and public services from adverse weather No risk of UV - It’s safe to stay outside. 1-2 Low - You can safely stay outside. Consider sunscreen in direct sunlight. 3-5 Moderate - Take care during midday hours and do not spend too much time in the sun unprotected. Sunscreen advised. 6-7 High - Seek shade during midday hours, cover up and wear sunscreen. 8-10 Very high - Spend time in the shade between 11am and 3pm. Shirt, sunscreen and hat are essential. 11 Extreme - Avoid being outside during midday hours. Shirt, sunscreen and hat essential. There is an equally strong evidence base on the risk to health from cold weather, again with older people (people of 65 and over) and those with some long-term medical conditions facing the greatest risk. Fuel poverty exacerbates this situation.

The research, published in Nature Communications , found that under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) rainfall events in the UK exceeding 20mm/hr could be four times as frequent by 2080 compared to the 1980s. Previous coarser model output (12km) predicted an increase of around two and a half times in the same period.

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Adverse weather matters for our health: there is a strong evidence base showing us that periods of very hot or cold weather or flooding present a wide range of direct and indirect health risks. Another concern is apparent sudden transitions to a much higher frequency of extreme events illustrated by the model output. This would suggest a sudden increase in the numbers of extreme rainfall events, outside of the experience of recent decades. If this scenario did happen it could lead to impacts where infrastructure was unprepared for such a change in our weather.” Cloud and patchy rain will push away to the south Wednesday morning. Any fog patches clearing around dawn. Then mostly dry with sunny periods and isolated coastal showers. Rather cold. Maximum temperature 4 °C. Outlook for Thursday to Saturday: This is the average height of the waves, 1-2 miles out to sea. The height of the waves can vary. The