The researchers urge that it's time to start working toward that tempo. Bouskill added: "For now, it may be enough to say that democracies need to think very critically about speed and how emerging technologies could fundamentally change the structure of governance." In the future, the speed born of new technologies will create unprecedented social and ethical dilemmas. How will speed affect international power relationships? Who will get access to new technologies? Who is likely to be left behind? How can we prevent or manage the disenchantment of those people? It is important to note that the definitions of the AI systems in question differ very much across these various studies. For example, the system that Cotra speaks about would have a much more transformative impact on the world than the system that the Metaculus forecasters focus on. More details can be found in the appendix and within the respective studies. What can we learn from the forecasts?

Cooling effect of clouds ‘underestimated’ by climate models

The authors correct the rainfall processes by using satellite data to determine how much rain falls from clouds in the present-day climate. They then modify the warm-rain processes in the climate model to match up more accurately with the satellite-observed probability of rainfall. And I would like to thank my colleague Charlie Giattino who calculated the timelines for individual experts based on the data from the three survey studies and supported the work on this essay. Charlie is also one of the authors of the cited study by Zhang et al. on timelines of AI experts. This 2-dimensional representation shows the flat, unwarped bubble of spacetime in the center where a warp drive would sit surrounded by compressed spacetime to the right (downward curve) and expanded spacetime to the left (upward curve). AllenMcC/Wikimedia Commons Compression and expansionThe smartphone was built using a principle called the piezoelectric effect. Nanogenerators were created that harvest ambient noise and convert it intoelectric current.

Warp drives: Physicists give chances of faster-than-light Warp drives: Physicists give chances of faster-than-light

One intuitive example of such a program is the ‘virtual professional’, “a model that can do roughly everything economically productive that an intelligent and educated human could do remotely from a computer connected to the internet at a hundred-fold speedup, for costs similar to or lower than the costs of employing such a human.” The high climate sensitivity of CMIP6 models attracted widespread attention within the scientific community, as a higher climate sensitivity means that future warming will be more rapid and intense than previously thought. It's not uncommon for lithium-ion batteries to overheat, catch on fire and possibly even explode. The battery in the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 is a prime example. Researchers at Stanford university have come up with lithium-ion batteries with built-in fire extinguishers.Stem cell derived therapies, also known as regenerative medicine, promotes the repair of diseased, dysfunctional or injured tissue by providing specialised cells that can be derived from stem cells i.e. neurons, cardiac and immune cells.

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Several studies have shown that the framing affects respondents’ timelines, with the fixed-years framing leading to longer timelines (i.e., that HLMI is further in the future). For example, in the previous edition of this survey (which asked identical questions), respondents who got the fixed-years framing gave a 50% chance of HLMI by 2068; those who got fixed-probability gave the year 2054. 14 The framing results from the 2022 edition of the survey have not yet been published. At the time of writing, in November 2022, the forecasters believe that there is a 50/50-chance for an ‘Artificial General Intelligence’ to be ‘devised, tested, and publicly announced’ by the year 2040, less than 20 years from now.

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Nanowires, a thousand times thinner than a human hair, pose a great possibility for future batteries. But they've always broken down when recharging. This discovery uses gold nanowires in a gel electrolyte to avoid that. In fact, these batteries were tested recharging over 200,000 times in three months and showed no degradation at all. Much of the literature on AI timelines focuses on the 50% probability threshold. I think it would be valuable if this literature would additionally also focus on higher thresholds, say a probability of 80% for the development of a particular technology. In future updates of this article we will aim to broaden the focus and include such higher thresholds. But astronomers think they are getting close to pinpointing what the Hubble Constant is and which of the measurements is correct.Liquid clouds in climate models rain too much. We found that fixing that problem in the model we studied reduces the amount of warming predicted by the model by about the same amount as the warming increase between CMIP5 and CMIP6. So the main message is: take the extra warming in CMIP6 with a grain of salt until some of the other known cloud problems are also fixed in the models.” The huge majority thinks that in the coming decades there is an even chance that we will see AI technology which will have a transformative impact on our world. While some have long timelines, many think it is possible that we have very little time before these technologies arrive. Across the three surveys more than half think that there is a 50% chance that a human-level AI would be developed before some point in the 2060s, a time well within the lifetime of today’s young people. The forecast of the Metaculus community While lithium-ion batteries are everywhere and growing in use cases, the management of those batteries, including determining when those batteries have reached the end of their life is difficult. Panasonic, working withProfessor Masahiro Fukui of Ritsumeikan University, has come up with a new battery management technology that will make it a lot easier monitor batteries and determine the residual value of lithium-ion in them.