Because she had no health insurance, friends and family organized a fund-raising auction to pay her medical bills. A turkey is fed every single day, firming up the bird’s belief that is the general rule of life to be provided sustenance by friendly family members of the human race. That is, a false premise may lead to a false result and inconclusive premises also will yield an inconclusive conclusion. After Vlamingh’s discovery, philosophers used the term “black swan” to describe a seeming logical impossibility that could very well end up being possible.

but eve babitz is just so witty and i always have a great time reading about all the things she got up to back in the day. No less widespread is what Taleb terms the "ludic fallacy", whereby real, "wild" randomness is confused with the controlled randomness of a casino, the lottery or other games of chance.

The philosopher John Stuart Mill, writing in A System of Logic in 1843, used the statement “all swans are white” to show how large numbers of consistent observations can encourage a wrong induction.

Constant references to Bertrand Russell as an "uberphilosopher", the introduction of Yogi Berra (the apothegmatic baseball coach) on a par with the world's greatest thinkers, a silly obsession with Ferragamo ties, the too frequent and inexplicable dropping in of the phrase "fuhgedaboudit", the description of anything bad as "toxic", the use of quasi-Yiddish disparagements such as "Nobel, shnobel" or "Renaissance, shmenaissance" - these are gambits not likely to encourage the kind attention of thinking people. Mere months later, the world economy would be in a tailspin—and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who in The Black Swan warned that the global financial system was vulnerable to collapse, would be treated as a seer. In fact, this truth was so incontrovertible that logicians would often use it to illustrate the process of deductive reasoning. since these are based on her real-life experiences, i would probably run away if i met someone like her in real life.

The subject of these nine stories by Babitz ( Sex and Rage) is Hollywood: brilliant and beautiful couples who somehow get along; charming yet moody men and their odd needs; and “Eve,” the narrator, who cautiously reveals in herself the vices of a naughty but not really bad girl. The confirmation bias and the round-trip fallacy, including how we confuse an absence of evidence with an evidence of absence, and the difference between negative empiricism vs naive empiricism. These include positive Black Swans, like the invention of the Internet and the discovery of antibiotics, as well as negative Black Swans, like the 2008 recession.

In Taleb’s words, the turkey was a sucker—it had full faith that the events of the past accurately indicated the future. The superstar effect, it’s vital to note, is meritocratic—that is, those with the most talent, even if they’re only slightly more talented than their competitors, get. Her wholesale embrace of what is lovely and dangerous and absurd about Los Angeles appeals to contemporary readers. Having not been able to settle back in Lebanon, it is as if Taleb has spent his whole life trying to show how one cannot "settle back" into any expected narrative at all. The term “Black Swan” has since been used to describe the occurrence of a seemingly-impossible event.Babitz’s inimitable voice propels these stories forward, corralling everything that gets in their way: sex, rage, the Chateau Marmont, youth, beauty, Jim Morrison, men, women, and black swans.