The Financial Crisis: How Did We Get Here?

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The Financial Crisis: How Did We Get Here?

The Financial Crisis: How Did We Get Here?

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Philip Albert Inman, 1st Baron Inman, PC (12 June 1892 – 26 August 1979) was a British Labour politician. Lord Inman died in August 1979, aged 87. His son had predeceased him in 1968 and so the barony became extinct. [2] Coat of arms of Philip Inman, 1st Baron Inman In this scenario, governments seeking to borrow may not find as many lenders queueing on the finance ministry steps to buy bonds as they have for the past 40 years.

Economic theory says high inflation encourages consumers to increase spending rather than risk hanging on to cash that will be worth less in a year’s time. Higher borrowing costs tame this impulse. Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, has analysed the situation in America, where more detailed information about the corporate sector is available. He examined the rise in wage costs across the hotel sector, adjusted for productivity since the end of 2019, and found it was between 5% and 6%. Restaurant and hotel prices had risen 16%.There is always a danger when looking for causation, especially when data points to a strong conclusion. In this case, the small sample size used by the Bank’s survey is notable: it covers 2,500 of the UK’s 5m-plus companies. This may be a small sample, but the Bank believes it can provide significant information about firms in relation to many other subjects, so why not this one? Yet crucially, prices are now on a three-month upward trajectory and not far off the pre-pandemic average for August of 100,000. At the moment, they have the resources to outwit the poorly resourced regulators in Ofwat and the Environment Agency. Local councils, which also play a role in protecting watercourses, have also seen their budgets cut and experienced staff losses, leaving them without the clout to confront private sector operators. Meanwhile bosses of energy giants such as Shell and BP play a game of “heads we win, tails you lose” as their pay climbs from year to year, blind to the ups and downs of global energy prices.

Once the consumer prices index had jumped to 10.1% in July, there was no doubt in the minds of most City analysts that the Bank would increase the cost of borrowing at its next meeting, and continue raising it into next year. Debate is also curtailed by two misleading concepts that appear to be truisms, and yet are anything but.

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Meanwhile, the European Central Bank boss, Christine Lagarde, said on Thursday that “determined action had to be taken”, following an unprecedented 0.75 basis points increase in the eurozone interest rate, to 1.25%. The latest business survey from S&P Global, its purchasing managers index (PMI), shows private sector business activity falling during September at the fastest pace since 2009, excluding the pandemic panic of April 2020. Until now, the Bank has brushed off concerns that profiteering by companies has played a big part in the inflation saga. Governor Andrew Bailey has urged workers on many occasions to forgo wage rises to help prevent inflationary pressures building on companies. He expects to see a mechanical reaction, almost as if he is talking about physics and not economics, from wage rises feeding directly into prices. Not any more. This time there is a real war, not just a financial one, and no one quite knows what to do. The major powers cannot agree about how to fight it and policymakers cannot agree about how to handle the fallout, especially the shortages of raw materials and food from Ukraine and Russia that are pushing inflation to 10% and beyond. Traditional measures of growth are not everything, as anyone concerned about the warming planet will know. Every form of economic activity is shoved into the GDP blender to construct a single growth figure, whether the nature of its output destroys the planet or lowers carbon emissions.



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