Then came Brexit. This damaged economic confidence, sterling fell and the well-documented problems ensued. The global pandemic followed leading to falling economic growth and structural shifts in the heavily indebted economy. How has Britain managed previous periods of economic change? On each occasion, how much has our economic future been shaped by our economic past? And what can today’s policy makers learn from our history as they navigate the decade of economic change to come? We were delighted to get Duncan on to the podcast for a chat about the book and his reflections on the where the British economy may be heading as we recover from the Covid cataclysm. Hart, S., and C. Banbury. 1994. How strategy-making processes can make a difference. Strategic Management Journal 15: 251–269.

Hundred Years of Muddling Through by Duncan Weldon review Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through by Duncan Weldon review

The author points to vested interests being a powerful force in hampering economic progress. For example, politicians tried to manufacture pre-election booms which led to stop -go episodes. Union power prevented economic progress. Later the trade unions were reformed by Thatcher and this eventually led to an economic revival. Tusher Ctr Intellectual Capital, University of California Tusher Ctr Intellectual Capital, Berkeley, California, USA Centuries of a largely agrarian economy vanished with the Industrial Revolution. Productivity and standards of living rose. The population and production moved from homes in the country to crowded towns. Increased coal production was needed to power mills. Canal traffic rose and railways boomed.

All the major points and figures from the past 200 years are contextualised and explained - the Industrial Revolution, (the repeal of) the Corn Laws, the Attlee reforms and ‘new Jerusalem’, and the Thatcher response (and reversal?) to this.

Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through by Duncan Weldon review

Geography still dictates trade. During the high years of British imperialism, (1870) only 25% of exports went to the empire, and by 1900 only to 30%. Europe remained the UK’s most important export market. The UK is, at the same time, both one of the world's most successful economies and one of Europe's laggards. The country contains some of Western Europe's richest areas such as the south east of England, but also some of its poorest such as the north east or Wales. It's really not much of an exaggeration to describe the UK, in economic terms, as 'Portugal but with Singapore in the bottom corner'. Looking into the past helps understand why. Globalisation ebbs and flows. The world of 1914 was much more globalised in relative terms that the world economy of 1979. Britain was the premier financial centre of the world in the late Victorian world, declined during the war years (1914 – 1970), and them boomed again between 1980 and the 2008. While the book mostly feels like an engagingly-written history of one economic event after another, Weldon emphasises a few recurring themes one can take away from economic history. Some of these do definitely stand out in his history, like the importance of political and social context, and how constant economic debate has been over the years. Weldon also emphasises 'path dependency', which he says 'is perhaps best thought of as the idea that the route one took to arrive somewhere is just as important as the destination'. I had more trouble understanding what this means, and how his history bears this out. How could history be anything other than path-dependent? What would a non-path-dependent economy look like, even hypothetically?March, J.G. 2005. Parochialism in the evolution of a research community: The case of organization studies. Management and Organization Review 1: 5–22. In war, do not think that trade did not continue. In 1809-1810 Britain continue to buy grain from France to feed its troops. The money France received helped fund their war, while France also needed clothing from the UK, which helped fund the UK war. French troops where often killed by the British wearing coats made in Northampton and Leeds.

The CapX Podcast: 200 years of muddling through - CapX The CapX Podcast: 200 years of muddling through - CapX

The UK is, at the same time, both one of the world’s most successful economies and one of Europe’s laggards. The country contains some of Western Europe’s richest areas such as the south east of England, but also some of its poorest such as the north east or Wales. Looking into the past helps understand why. Eisenhardt, K.M. 1989. Making fast strategic decisions in high-velocity environments. Academy of Management Journal 32: 543–576. A lot of the received wisdom in UK economic history in a nice concise and readable format. I felt the writing improved as the chapters came up to date with more of a narrative and less lists of figures. But I find more recent economic history most interesting so maybe that's just me.

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Why did we British become so attached to the idea that we always muddle through? Perhaps we should blame Churchill, whose “Keep Buggering On” mantra became a national catchphrase during the Second World War. But are we really a nation of muddlers-through?