In addition to this definition, respondents were asked about AI systems that are able to collectively accomplish 50% and 90% of human tasks, as well as “broadly capable AI systems” that are able to accomplish 90% and 99% of human tasks. Several studies have shown that the framing affects respondents’ timelines, with the fixed-years framing leading to longer timelines (i.e., that HLMI is further in the future). For example, in the previous edition of this survey (which asked identical questions), respondents who got the fixed-years framing gave a 50% chance of HLMI by 2068; those who got fixed-probability gave the year 2054. 14 The framing results from the 2022 edition of the survey have not yet been published.

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A very different kind of forecast that is also relevant here is the work of David Roodman. In his article Modeling the Human Trajectory he studies the history of global economic output to think about the future. He asks whether it is plausible to see economic growth that could be considered ‘transformative’ – an annual growth rate of the world economy higher than 30% – within this century. One of his conclusions is that "if the patterns of long-term history continue, some sort of economic explosion will take place again, the most plausible channel being AI.” Those in the fixed-years framing were asked, “How likely is it that HLMI exists: In 10 years? In 20 years? In 40 years?” They responded by giving a probability of that happening. Peter Norvig and Stuart Russell (2021) – Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Fourth edition. Published by Pearson.

The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) is responsible for regulating all medicines and medical devices in the UK by ensuring they work and are acceptably safe. All our work is underpinned by robust and fact-based judgements to ensure that the benefits justify any risks. At the time of writing, in November 2022, the forecasters believe that there is a 50/50-chance for an ‘Artificial General Intelligence’ to be ‘devised, tested, and publicly announced’ by the year 2040, less than 20 years from now. Other trends, such as moving toward environmentally friendly initiatives, the massive adoption of pets during the pandemic, a mental health crisis, working from home and the desire to improve our health and lives, will create all sorts of new opportunities. Here are the jobs that the U.S. Labor Department and BLS project will be the fastest growing jobs going into 2030, along with the median annual pay: Baobao Zhang, Noemi Dreksler, Markus Anderljung, Lauren Kahn, Charlie Giattino, Allan Dafoe, and Michael Horowitz (2022) – Forecasting AI Progress: Evidence from a Survey of Machine Learning Researchers. Published on arXiv June 8, 2022.

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Another example is Ernest Rutherford, father of nuclear physics, calling the possibility of harnessing nuclear energy "moonshine." The research paper by John Jenkin discusses why. John G. Jenkin (2011) – Atomic Energy is ‘‘Moonshine’’: What did Rutherford Really Mean?. Published in Physics in Perspective. DOI 10.1007/s00016-010-0038-1 To create negative energy, a warp drive would use a huge amount of mass to create an imbalance between particles and antiparticles. For example, if an electron and an antielectron appear near the warp drive, one of the particles would get trapped by the mass and this results in an imbalance. This imbalance results in negative energy density. Alcubierre’s warp drive would use this negative energy to create the spacetime bubble. At a time where medicines to slow or stop degenerative diseases, such as Parkinson’s disease, are becoming a reality, our work is helping research go even further, curating and supplying the foundation of cell-based therapeutics, which have the potential to treat, and one day, even cure these diseases.Sydney Uni has managed to create a zinc-air batterywithout the need for the expensive components, but rather some cheaper alternatives. Safer, cheaper batteries could be on their way!